Tech Giants' AI Build-Out Could Match Historic Rail Expansion in Scale
Hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft plan to spend $3.7 trillion on AI infrastructure over the next five years, according to a new report from CBRE. The scale rivals the railroad expansion of the 1850s relative to economic output at the time.
CBRE, the world's largest commercial real estate services firm, released the first report Thursday in a four-part series on AI's economic effects. The analysis focuses on workers and the broader economy, with future reports examining office demand and real estate impacts.
Data Centers and Manufacturing Lead the Charge
Data center construction has jumped to 12 times its 2020 level. Manufacturing leasing is up 28% from early 2025, driven largely by industries supporting the tech companies building AI infrastructure.
The immediate real estate impact is concentrated in data centers and industrial properties, particularly in major markets with deep pools of skilled talent. Steady office demand is also expected, though less pronounced than after previous technological shifts.
Jobs Will Change Shape More Than Disappear
Nearly 80% of American companies use AI today, but 90% report little business impact so far. CBRE said job composition should shift more than job counts, with roles reconfigured rather than eliminated.
Entry-level workers in AI-exposed fields have seen lower employment growth compared with those in less-exposed roles, the report found. However, CBRE noted that many careers today didn't exist 25 years ago and new roles will emerge as workers adapt.
The concern is real. A Pew Research Center report found that about a third of workers expect AI to reduce job opportunities. A Brookings Metro and Opportunity@Work report warned that AI threatens pathways to better-paying jobs for millions of Americans.
But other data points in different directions. LinkedIn found companies still value skills that are innately human-cross-team collaboration, client relations, leadership. A University of Phoenix Career Institute report showed AI skills give workers confidence to seek better positions.
AI Investment Dwarfs Previous Tech Cycles
U.S.-based AI startups have raised roughly $578 billion in venture capital since 2020, with nearly three-quarters arriving in the past two years. AI buildout last year represented nearly half of all U.S. gross domestic product growth, compared with just 8% in 2023 and 2024.
The North American data center market is setting records for growth driven by AI development, cloud computing, and e-commerce demand.
Julie Whelan, head of occupier research at CBRE, said the infrastructure investment should position the U.S. for long-term global competitiveness. With fewer working-age people entering the workforce, she said, AI infrastructure spending may be what keeps the economy growing.
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